India’s pay-TV industry, which consists of cable and DTH services, is set to shrink by 1-3% in revenue for FY2026, as more viewers move away from traditional cable and DTH services in favour of over-the-top (OTT) streaming platforms and free dish services, according to a forecast by rating agency ICRA. This ongoing shift is expected to impact the industry’s profit margins, with operating earnings likely to decline by 175-225 basis points year-on-year, settling at around 23-25% overall. The DTH segment is expected to fare better with margins of 33-35%, while multi-system operators (MSOs) may see lower profitability at 6-8%. However, leading players with strong financial backing are likely to maintain stability through continued access to capital and liquidity.

Growth in premium content could offset subscriber losses

Despite the decline in subscribers, the industry is expected to partially offset losses through an increase in average revenue per user (ARPU), estimated to grow by 1-3% annually. The adoption of bundled services that combine traditional TV with OTT platforms and broadband, as well as premium offerings such as HD, 4K, and live events, could support revenue generation. However, rising costs for acquiring premium content—such as sports broadcasting rights and international programming—along with ongoing investments in network maintenance, are expected to further squeeze profit margins.

Why are consumers shifting to OTT?

Ritu Goswami, sector head for Corporate Ratings, ICRA, highlights the growing appeal of streaming services, driven by the demand for personalised, on-demand content, ad-free experiences, and a variety of regional programming. The affordability of smartphones, widespread internet access, and the rise of smart TVs have further accelerated this transition. Regulatory changes, including pricing caps on TV channels and new rules on content packaging, have also played a role in reshaping consumer preferences.

India remains the second-largest television market after China, with nearly 190 million TV households in 2024. While overall TV penetration is expected to grow, the industry is undergoing a structural shift. Wealthier urban consumers are increasingly switching to digital alternatives such as smart TVs and streaming services, while lower-income and rural households are gravitating toward free dish services. 

Despite its large subscriber base, India’s pay-TV industry lags behind markets like the U.S. and Europe, where ARPU is significantly higher due to a greater willingness to pay for premium content. In contrast, India’s highly price-sensitive audience has slowed the pace of “cord-cutting,” especially in rural areas where TV remains the primary source of entertainment. Factors such as affordability, hybrid service offerings, and internet infrastructure limitations will likely prevent a sharp decline in pay-TV subscriptions in the near future, according to ICRA.